Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for December 2025

The following charts provide a look at the past five years of manufacturer shipments of unitary products. Shipment growth soared in the back half of 2024 as distributors geared up for the transition to A2L products. A consequence of this rapid growth was tougher comps in 2025, as distributors worked through elevated inventories. The December shipment figures are in line with comments from industry leaders during their Q4 earnings calls. A combined total of 11 million shipments across the three product lines may be where volumes begin to level off, forming a base at that level.

Air-Conditioner Shipment Performance

There were 188.7K ACs shipped in December. AC shipments are down 35.9% versus December of last year and 33.6% versus the recent three-year average for December shipments. The 12-month pace of AC shipments has declined by 26.2%, reaching its slowest level since the summer of 2016. The rolling three-month growth rate is down nearly 50 percent from 2024 levels, but encouragingly the pace of that decline slowed from November to December. Nevertheless, the steep and sustained declines in AC shipment volume imply an annual rate of around 3.5 million units - well below normal and at a level that appears unsustainable. The “normal” rolling 12-month total of AC shipments is typically above five million units, and we expect the pace of shipments to pick up in the coming months.

Furnace Shipment Performance

There were 271K furnaces shipped in December, an increase of 0.4% versus December 2024. The 12-month pace of furnace shipments through December have increased by 4.1% from 2024 The rolling three-month growth rate for furnaces is -7.1%, indicating that the annual pace of shipments may slip toward flat/negative growth during the first part of 2026.

Heat Pump Shipment Performance

There were 219.5K heat pumps shipped in December, a decline of 2.4% versus December 2024. December 2025 heat pump shipments are down 8.4% compared to the recent three-year average for December. The rolling three-month rate for heat pumps is -30.7%, and although it has turned from last month, shipments appear likely to slow further. The 12-month pace of shipments has declined by 11.6%. However, the rolling 12-month total of heat pump shipments appears to have stabilized around 3.6 million units.

Distributor Shipment Performance

Distributors participating in HARDI’s Unitary Market Program have followed a similar growth trajectory to that of manufacturers. The above chart shows the 12-month growth rate in distributor shipments of ACs, HPs, and furnaces (dark line) versus the 12-month growth rate in manufacturer shipments (orange line) for the same products. With the rolling three-month growth rate of total manufacturer AC, HP, and furnace shipments turning in the December report, the general trend may be starting to level off at an annual pace of 11 million units. The three-month growth rate through January for distributor shipments continues to dip, signaling that distributors have further to go before rebounding.

Learn More About Unitary Product Movement

While the AHRI shipment report offers a valuable piece of the puzzle, our Unitary Market Report helps complete the picture. In partnership with CoMetrics, the report offers insights to help HVACR professionals understand their market position and identify areas of growth or loss. Participants gain access to the dynamic Unitary Market dashboards, that allow slicing and dicing data by different product categories, refrigerants, efficiency levels, states, and more.

Participation is a free member benefit and access to the powerful dashboards that bring real-time sales trends to their fingertips is available upon submission. Contact Grace Helser for more information or to schedule a demo of the dashboards or fill out this onboarding form to get started today.