Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for February 2026

The following charts provide a look at the past three years of manufacturer shipments of unitary products. After experiencing considerable declines for the majority of 2025, the pace of the decline has bottomed out for air conditioners and heat pumps. We will begin to see more improvements in the annual rates of air conditioners and heat pumps as the 3 month growth rates continue to pull them up from the trough. Furnace shipments will face the next series of declines, with the annual rate dipping into the negatives with this report. The annual pace of air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces appears to have found a floor at around 10.8 million units per year.

Air-Conditioner Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 328.1K ACs shipped in February, down 4.2% compared to February 2025 and down 7% compared to the average number of units shipped in February for the past 3 years. Over the last 12 months, AC shipments have declined by 29.9%, making this the weakest AC shipment performance since the summer of 2016. The months of November to February typically make up 21.3% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 4.26 million, or an increase of 7.7% from the last 12 months. We typically expect the annual pace of AC shipments to be in the 5.0-5.5-million-unit range. In comparison, the annual rate of ACs shipped through February is 3.95 million units. The rolling 3-month growth rate has clearly hit bottom and is working its way back up the axis, currently sitting at -26%. This increase by the 3-month growth rate will begin to pull the annual growth rate as well in the coming months.

Furnace Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 247.3K furnaces shipped in February, a decrease of 5.7% versus February 2025 and 4% higher than the average number of shipments in February over the last three years. As mentioned in previous updates, furnaces would be the next product line to face pressure as judged by the 3-month growth rate. The rolling 12-month annual growth rate dropped to -1.2%, and the rolling 3-month growth rate dropped to -8.4%. The months of November to February typically make up 32.6% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 2.97 million, or a decrease of 7.5% from the last 12 months.

Heat Pump Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 310.7K heat pumps shipped in February, a decline of 5.8% versus February 2025, but an increase of 5.3% compared to the average number of units shipped in February for the past 3 years. Over the last 12 months, shipments have declined 13.4%, a 0.2% increase from January. The pace of the decline in the rolling 3-month growth has slowed considerably over the past few months, currently sitting at -4% through February. The months of November to February typically make up 26.3% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 3.64 million, or an increase of 0.6% from the last 12 months.

Distributor Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI, HARDI Unitary Report powered by CoMetrics}

Distributors participating in HARDI’s Unitary Market Program have followed a similar growth trajectory to that of manufacturers. The above chart shows the 12-month growth rate in distributor shipments of ACs, HPs, and furnaces (dark line) versus the 12-month growth rate in manufacturer shipments (orange line) for the same products. While the annual growth rates for both distributors and manufacturers are still negative, the rolling 3-month growth rates (not pictured here, -14% for manufacturers through February, and -11% for distributors through February) have bottomed out.

Learn More About Unitary Product Movement

While the AHRI shipment report offers a valuable piece of the puzzle, our Unitary Market Report helps complete the picture. In partnership with CoMetrics, the report offers insights to help HVACR professionals understand their market position and identify areas of growth or loss. Participants gain access to the dynamic Unitary Market dashboards, that allow slicing and dicing data by different product categories, refrigerants, efficiency levels, states, and more.

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