Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for March 2026

The following charts provide a look at the past three years of manufacturer shipments of unitary products. Total combined shipments of air conditioners, furnaces, and heat pumps have stabilized just below 11 million units annually, well below the pre-covid normal pace of 12 million units. Recent shipment performance indicates heat pumps have turned positive, while furnaces remain under pressure and AC shipments may be stabilizing. A meaningful recovery toward 12 million units during 2026 appears unlikely at this point.

Air-Conditioner Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 436.8K ACs shipped in March, up just 0.1% compared to March 2025 and down 6.6% compared to the average number of units shipped in March for the past 3 years. Over the last 12 months, AC shipments have declined by 29.3%, continuing to reflect the weakest AC shipment performance in nearly a decade. The months of December to March typically make up 25.7% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 4.53 million, or an increase of 14.6% from the last 12 months. We typically expect the annual pace of AC shipments to be in the 5.0-5.5-million-unit range. In comparison, the annual rate of ACs shipped through March is 3.95 million units.

Furnace Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 255.8K furnaces shipped in March, a decrease of 14.9% versus March 2025 and down 6.4% compared to the average number of shipments in March over the last three years. As noted in previous updates, furnaces are now clearly facing the pressure that the 3-month growth rate had been signaling. The rolling 12-month annual growth rate has slipped to -4.1%, and year-to-date furnace shipments are down 13.5%. The months of December to March typically make up 30.9% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 3.18 million, essentially a flat to 0.5% increase from the last 12 months.

Heat Pump Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 419.9K heat pumps shipped in March, an increase of 9.8% versus March 2025, and an increase of 11.3% compared to the average number of units shipped in March for the past 3 years. Over the last 12 months, shipments have declined 12.8%, a modest improvement from prior months. Year-to-date heat pump shipments have inched ahead by 0.9%, marking a positive turn. The months of December to March typically make up 30.6% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 3.85 million, or an increase of 5.5% from the last 12 months.

Distributor Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI, HARDI Unitary Report powered by CoMetrics}

The chart above shows the course of unit growth for distributors participating in HARDI’s Unitary Market Report compared that of manufacturers. From this we are able to see a cleaner picture into the difference of sell-in versus sell-through patterns. While HARDI distributors have followed a pattern very similar to manufacturers, the peaks and valleys are less pronounced. It is encouraging to see the sell-through side of the channel is not as deeply negative as the sell-in share. The rolling three month growth rate for HARDI distributors is just south of flat, at -0.1%. Getting into cooling season will spark some replacement activity as homeowners begin to start their units for the first time. The pace of decline for both sides of the channel has slowed, and potentially bottomed out.

Learn More About Unitary Product Movement

While the AHRI shipment report offers a valuable piece of the puzzle, our Unitary Market Report helps complete the picture. In partnership with CoMetrics, the report offers insights to help HVACR professionals understand their market position and identify areas of growth or loss. Participants gain access to the dynamic Unitary Market dashboards, that allow slicing and dicing data by different product categories, refrigerants, efficiency levels, states, and more.

Participation is a free member benefit and access to the powerful dashboards that bring real-time sales trends to their fingertips is available upon submission. Contact Grace Helser for more information or to schedule a demo of the dashboards or fill out this onboarding form to get started today.