States are Committing to Heat Pumps for the Future

Nine states are working to make heat pumps the future of residential heating, air-conditioning, and water heating. California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island have all signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to have heat pumps make up at least 65% of the shipments of residential heating, air-conditioning, and water-heating products by 2030, and 90% by 2040. See Figure 1 below for what 65% of shipments would be for each state in the residential heating and air-conditioning market. Some states may rely more heavily on heat pump water heaters to meet their goals.

Figure 1. Based on HARDI data, we calculated the number of heating and cooling shipments that will be in demand in 2030. From there, we found what each state’s 65% goal would numerically equate to.

In addition to the MOU, states have installed base goals for central HVAC, ductless, and water heaters for Heat Pumps. The nine MOU participating states 2030 goals are as follows:

• California: 6,000,000 Heat pumps

• Colorado: 200,000 Heat pumps

• Maine: 175,000 Heat pumps (by 2027)

• Maryland: 80% of Homes (by 2050)

• Massachusetts: 500,000 Heat pumps

• New Jersey: 400,000 Residential heat pumps & 200,000 Commercial heat pumps

• New York: 2,000,000 Heat pumps

• Oregon: 500,000 Heat pumps

• Rhode Island: No stated Heat Pump goal aside from MOU. But have applied a High Efficiency Heat Pump Program (HHPP).

These states believe the technology for heat pumps has improved over time to the point that even the coldest of temperatures outside can lead to heat inside the building. Technological improvements mean heat pumps can move heat 300%-400% more efficiently than direct electricity or fuel to heat systems. Moreover, according to a study in Joule, heat pumps being applied in all residential U.S. homes would decrease residential emissions by 36-64%.

Additionally, via WIRED, a study from an environmental NGO found that a heat pump can save an average American household over $550 a year. In addition to lowering utility bills by using heat pumps, there are other ways for homeowners to save through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The IRA included rebates available for households to switch to heat pumps through tax credits and rebates.

The MOU explicitly says that every state has a willingness and desire to collaborate with stakeholders, including manufacturers, distributors, and installers. It would be advantageous for any worker in or affected by heat pumps to contact their state environmental office and be involved with this rising demand for heat pumps. The states know their goal cannot be met without the heat pumps being available in their markets or having contractors available to install the heat pumps.

States and the DOE have increasingly focused on contractor training as a barrier to heat pump adoption. While advocates for the contractor community rightfully point out there is plenty of institutional knowledge around proper heat pump installation, the industry also realizes the need for greater technician training to bring workers into the industry.

Heat pump water heater goals also provide a new customer opportunity for distributors. For example, the California License Board has shared that heat pump water heaters can be installed or repaired by either a C-20 (HVAC license) OR C-36 (Plumbing license). This opens a new opportunity for California distributors to work with C-36 license holders in this space.

Some states are choosing heat pumps to be the future. Make sure that you and your business are prepared and take advantage of this transition. There are nine states that signed the MOU, but there could easily be more to seek this same switch.

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