Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for April 2026

The following charts three charts provide a look at the course of manufacturer shipments of air conditioners, air source heat pumps, and furnaces over the last three years. The combined sum of the three product lines typically stabilized at a pace near 12 million units shipped per year. Through the last 12 months through April, there have been 10.8 million shipments, just a hair below the 11 million unit base predicted. Looking at the growth rates for the combined sum, the rolling 12 month growth rate is at -18%, and the rolling 3 month growth rate has climbed to just above 0%. The 3 month growth rate will help to pull the 12 month rate back up in the coming months, and the pace of the decline in the 12 month rate has already slowed. Most of this turn stems from the recovery in AC shipments, which make up 37% of the total.

Air-Conditioner Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 456.2K ACs shipped in April, up 8% compared to April 2025 and up 7.3% compared to the average number of units shipped in April for the past 3 years. Over the last 12 months, AC shipments have declined by 28.6%, though the trend continues to improve as stronger recent months pull at the annual figure. The months of January to April typically make up 30% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 4.78 million, or an increase of 19.8% from the last 12 months. The rolling three month growth rate for air conditioners has come positive with this report, jumping to 1.7% in April from -13% in March. We typically expect the annual pace of AC shipments to be in the 5.0-5.5-million-unit range. In comparison, the annual rate of ACs shipped through April is 3.99 million units.

Furnace Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 253.9K furnaces shipped in April, a decrease of 4.6% versus April 2025 but essentially in line with the three-year average for the month, up just 1.1%. While the monthly comparison is less severe than March’s sharp year-over-year drop (-14.9%), the rolling 12-month annual growth rate has edged further negative to -5.3%, and year-to-date furnace shipments are off 11.4%. The rolling 3 month growth rate for furnaces has been bouncing around the -10% mark for the last few months, currently sitting at -9%. The months of January to April typically make up 27.9% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 3.46 million, or an increase of 9.8% from the last 12 months.

Heat Pump Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI}

There were 380.9K heat pumps shipped in April, an increase of 1.8% versus April 2025, and up 16.4% compared to the average number of units shipped in April for the past 3 years. Over the last 12 months, shipments have declined 13.9%, though year-to-date heat pump volumes remain slightly positive at 1.2%. The most recent three months through April are 6% higher compared to February-April of last year, a healthy sign that the decline in annual growth rate will most likely begin to turn in the coming months. The months of January to April typically make up 33.3% of annualized shipments, which would imply a current rate of 4.03 million, or an increase of 10.2% from the last 12 months.

Distributor Shipment Performance

_{Source: AHRI, HARDI Unitary Report powered by CoMetrics}

Distributors participating in HARDI’s Unitary Market Program have followed a similar growth trajectory to that of manufacturers, albeit with less pronounced peaks and valleys for unit growth. The above chart shows the 12-month growth rate in distributor shipments of ACs, HPs, and furnaces (dark line) versus the 12-month growth rate in manufacturer shipments (orange line) for the same products. Both of the annual growth rates above appear to bottoming out, with the pace of the decline slowing. The rolling 3 month growth rate for HARDI distributors is up to 5.6%, likely helped by a warmer than normal April. The 3 month growth rate for manufacturers is just above flat, 0.3%. Hopefully, getting into cooling season will help these growth rates course correct.

Learn More About Unitary Product Movement

While the AHRI shipment report offers a valuable piece of the puzzle, our Unitary Market Report helps complete the picture. In partnership with CoMetrics, the report offers insights to help HVACR professionals understand their market position and identify areas of growth or loss. Participants gain access to the dynamic Unitary Market dashboards, that allow slicing and dicing data by different product categories, refrigerants, efficiency levels, states, and more.

Participation is a free member benefit and access to the powerful dashboards that bring real-time sales trends to their fingertips is available upon submission. Contact Grace Helser for more information or to schedule a demo of the dashboards or fill out this onboarding form to get started today.