Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for May 2025

Below are the results of the May 2025 AHRI shipment report. The orange mountains in the below charts represent the total number of shipments summer over the past 12 months, and the dark line represents the annual growth rate. Over the course of 2024, the annual growth rate made wild gains across all three product categories. This is largely due to easier comps versus 2023, where distributors were working through excess inventory after post-Covid supply chain disruptions, and the recent stock up of A2L equipment. Recently, the pace of annual growth has started to slow across the three product categories. 

Air-Conditioner Shipments

There were 474.5K air conditioners shipped by manufacturers in May 2025. This is 13% lower than the 545.6K air conditioners shipped in May 2024. The annual rate is growing at 11.3% with 5.6 million units shipped over the last 12 months, a slight decline from a recent peak of 12.7%. The annual rate is still 13% lower than the May 2021 peak of 6.4 million. The 3-month rolling average growth rate has dropped significantly this year, from 40% growth in January to -8% growth in May.

Furnace Shipments

There were 285.4K furnaces (a combination of both gas and oil) shipped in May 2025. This is an increase of 15.7% compared to May 2024. The annual rate is growing at 14% with 3.4 million units shipped over the last 12 months. On a 3-month basis, furnace shipment growth has slowed from 22% to 16% - a steep decline, but one that leaves the 3-month rate at a level still greater than the annual rate. We will continue to monitor the momentum of this trend.

Heat Pump Shipments

There were 387.6K heat pumps shipped into the channel in May 2025. This is an increase of 5.9% versus May of the prior year. The annual rate of heat pumps climbed to 20.5% this month, bringing the annual total to 4.2 million units – an impressive continuation of the tremendous growth over the past year. However, things have slowed more recently with the rolling 3-month growth rate falling to 9% from its recent, December 2024 high of 45%.

National Unitary Sales Mix for Q2 of 2025

At the distributor level, over 40% of unitary product sales came from the sale of traditional ducted AC units in Q2. In terms of year-to-year growth, distributors participating in our Unitary Market Report reported declining unitary sales volume relative to the same quarter in 2024. Volume declines were driven by both declining AC and ASHP sales, with both categories declining by double-digits in May. Much of this decline can likely be attributed to milder than normal temperatures in May, refrigerant shortages, and economic uncertainty.

Learn More About Unitary Product Movement

While the AHRI shipment report offers a valuable piece of the puzzle, our Unitary Market Report helps complete the picture. The new and improved report offers insights to help HVACR professionals understand their market position and identify areas of growth or loss. Earlier this summer, participants gained access to the brand new, dynamic Unitary Market dashboards, that allow slicing and dicing data by different product categories, refrigerants, efficiency levels, states, and more.

Participation is a free member benefit and access to the powerful new dashboards that bring real-time sales trends to their fingertips is available upon submission. Contact Grace Helser to learn how to get involved.