Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for May 2024

The May shipment report is another transition month, reflecting the ongoing shifts in the HVAC market. There was a light uptick in air conditioner shipments and mixed performance across heat pumps and furnaces.

Air-Conditioner Shipments Show Modest Growth

There were 545.6K air conditioners shipped during May 2024, an increase of 3.4% from May the previous year. The rolling 3-month growth (the orange line in the top chart) is currently at 0%, indicating a stabilization point. The total number of AC shipments over the past 12 months amounts to 5 million, which is down 9.3% from one year ago. Year-to-date AC shipments show a decline of 2%. January through May typically represents 41.6% of annualized shipments, which currently implies a rate of 4.98 million or a decrease of 0.3% from the last 12 months.

Heat Pump Shipments Are Treading Water

There were 365.9K Heat Pumps shipped during May 2024, a decline of 3.8% from May 2023. The rolling 3-month growth is at -1%, indicating a slight decline in shipments over the last three months. This level suggests a deceleration of the decline heat pumps have been experiencing and could signal a potential reversal back into positive growth. The total number of heat pump shipments over the past 12 months amounts to 3.54 million, which is down 16.5% from the 12 months through May 2023. Year-to-date heat pump shipments show a decline of 4.8%. January through May typically represents 44% of annualized shipments, which currently implies a rate of 3.56 million or an increase of only 0.6% over the last 12 months.

Furnace shipments Decline Despite Higher Year-to-Date Growth

During May 2024, there were 246.7K furnace shipments (a combination of natural gas and oil), a decline of 1.1% from May the previous year. The recent -10% 3-month growth rate is a recovery from a deeper decline observed around February 2024, where the growth rate reached below -20%. Over the last year, furnace shipments totaled 2.92 million, down by 17.6% from May 2023. Year-to-date furnace shipments have declined by 7.3% through May 2024. January through May typically represents 27.9% of annualized shipments, which currently implies a rate of 3.3 million or an increase of 13.2% from the last 12 months.

Over the past four years, HARDI distributors have seen varied sales performance. At the start of COVID-19, the annual sales growth rate was just below 4%. Two years later, it surged to 25%. Now, another two years on, the annual growth rate has fallen back to near-zero. This return to zero is due to normalizing demand patterns, a trend also reflected in AHRI's manufacturer shipment data. Historically, the median annual sales growth has been around 6%, with price increases averaging about 2.5%. HARDI expects distributor sales growth to improve through the rest of 2024 and return to a more typical growth pattern in 2025.

Learn More About Unitary Product Movement

While sales performance figures from our monthly Trends Report and AHRI shipment data offer a window into unitary market performance for distributors, they can’t compete with the real thing. HARDI’s new and improved Unitary Market Report offers essential insights to help you understand your market position and identify areas of growth or loss. Contact Tim Fisher or Grace Helser to learn how to get involved.