Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for March 2025

Below are the results of the AHRI shipment report for March 2025. The orange sections of the charts feature the total number of shipments summed over the past 12 months, and the dark line represents the annual growth rate. Currently, the annual growth rate for all three product categories is unsustainably high, mostly reflecting easy comps from this time last year as distributors were working through excess inventory post supply chain struggles. The current rate of growth will slow in the coming months as distributors work through the R-410A stock-up that came with the end of 2024.

Air-Conditioner Shipments

There were 436.3K AC units shipped in March, a decrease of 7.3% from 2024. The pre-Covid normal rate of AC shipments was in the 5.2-5.4 million range. In March, the annual rate climbed to 5.7 million units shipped over the past 12 months, showing growth of 12.7%. The average 3-month growth rate dropped to 3% in March from 15% the previous month, potentially signaling a pullback in shipments following pre-buy activity. Shipments will begin to slow in the next few months as distributors continue working through their R-410A stock. The recent 4 months typically account for 26% of annual shipments, which implies a rate of 5.5 million versus the 5.7 million shipped during the past twelve months – getting back into pre-Covid normal territory.

Furnace Shipments

There were 300.7K furnaces shipped during March 2025, an increase of 20.1% compared to last March. The annual rate of furnace shipments hit their low last spring and have since rebounded back into the historic normal range of 3.2-3.4 million. Based on the 3-month growth rate, which increased to 22% from 20% in February, growth in furnace shipments still has forward momentum. The last 4 months typically account for 31% of annualized shipments, which implies a current rate of 3.6 million units shipped, or an increase of 7.6% versus the last 12 months.

Heat Pump Shipments

There were 382.5K heat pumps shipped during March 2025, an increase of 3.9% versus March of last year. The number of heat pumps units shipped over the past 12 months increased by 18.7%. Heat pumps had the most accelerated and aggressive recovery of the three product categories, a combination stemming from easy comps versus last year and the transition to A2L refrigerants. The rolling 3-month growth rate for heat pumps this month is 8%. Like ACs, we expect this growth to slow down in the coming months toward mid-single-digit growth. The last 4 months of heat pump shipments typically represent 31% of annual shipments, which implies a current rate of 3.84 million units, or a decline of 8.3% in total 2025 volume.

Distributor sales growth, as reported in our monthly Trends Report, held steady in March and was supported by higher equipment prices and tariff-related price increases. Throughout 2024, the sales-to-inventory ratio had been steadily recovering toward the pre-Covid normal average of 4.7. However, this April, the sales-to-inventory ratio dropped back into 2022 territory, falling to 3.8. Back in May 2022, post-Covid supply chain disruptions during this time had distributors bloated with excess inventory to combat longer and unreliable lead times, dropping the ratio down to 3.8. A similar dynamic is at play now with distributors stocking up on R-410A equipment, causing the ratio to dip. This should just be a blip as normal lead times and hopefully stronger demand bring the ratio back to more sustainable levels.

Learn More About Unitary Product Movement

While Q1 unitary shipments on the sell-in side are up 10%, distributor sales through the channel declined by 7% - as reported by participating distributors in our Unitary Market Report. Sales performance figures from our monthly Trends Report and AHRI shipment data offer a window into unitary market performance for distributors, they can't compete with the real thing. HARDI’s new and improved Unitary Market Report offers essential insights to help you understand your market position and identify areas of growth or loss. Contact Grace Helser to learn how to get involved.