Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for April 2025

Below are the results of the AHRI shipment report for April 2025. The orange sections of the charts feature the total number of shipments summed over the past 12 months, and the dark line represents the annual growth rate. The annual growth rate over the past couple of months skyrocketed for all three product categories. This is primarily reflective of favorable comparisons to last year when distributors were cleaning out excess inventory from 2022-2023 supply chain volatility. Distributors stocked up on R-410A equipment ahead of the manufacturing cutoff date as well, contributing to the spikes. The pace of the annual growth rate is beginning to slow.

Air-Conditioner Shipments

There were 422.3K air conditioners shipped during April 2025. Shipments in April 2025 are 2.8% lower than April the prior year. The average number of ACs shipped during the past 3 April is 480K, making this month 12% lower than average. The annual rate is growing at 12.1% with 5.6 million units shipped, however this is 13% lower than the May 2021 peak of 6.4 million. The rolling 3-month growth rate for ACs has dropped to -6% from 3.2% last month. January through April typically represent 30% of annualized shipments, which implies a current shipment rate of 5.17 million or a decline of 7.4% versus the 12 previous months. ACs may have started to slow.

Furnace Shipments

There were 266.1K furnaces shipped during April 2025, a decrease of 1.4% versus April 2024. The annual rate for furnaces shipped is still growing, increasing to 3.33 million over the past 12 months. The rolling 3-month growth rate for furnaces is still elevated but has come down from 22% last month to 17.8% this month. The rolling 3 month growth will help show how much more furnace shipments can recover from the recent low of 2.9 million units shipped annually through May 2024. January through April typically make up 28% of the furnaces shipped annually, which implies a current annual rate of 3.9 million, or a 17.6% increase.

Heat Pump Shipments

There were 374K heat pumps shipped during April 2025. This is an increase of 18.9% versus April 2024. The annual rate of heat pumps shipped increased to 19.6%, and the rolling 3-month growth rate is still floating in the mid-single digits at 8.6%, potentially pointing to a slowdown in shipments. January through April typically represent 33% of annualized shipments, implying a current shipment rate of 3.99 million, or a decrease of 6.2% versus the last 12 months.

Learn More About Unitary Product Movement

While the AHRI shipment report offers a valuable piece of the puzzle, our Unitary Market Report helps complete the picture. The new and improved report offers insights to help HVACR professionals understand their market position and identify areas of growth or loss. Earlier this month, participants gained access to the brand new, dynamic Unitary Market dashboards, that allow slicing and dicing data by different product categories, refrigerants, efficiency levels, states, and more.

Participation is a free member benefit and access to the powerful new dashboards that bring real-time sales trends to their fingertips is available upon submission. Contact Grace Helser to learn how to get involved.