Potential Sell-through Extension Creates Risk Not Relief

At an event at Alta Refrigeration in Georgia, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced new details about the agency’s reconsideration of the Technology Transition Rule. While the remarks themselves contained factual inaccuracies, the more troubling development came from an EPA tweet at the event. The agency wrote:

This language suggests the proposed reconsideration package, which is currently under review by the Office of Management and Budget, would delay the January 1, 2026, installation deadline for residential and light commercial air conditioners and heat pumps. Such a change would violate the AIM Act, contradict EPA’s own precedent, and run counter to current industry data. Lawsuits from environmental NGOs and states, even industry supporters, would likely suspend and invalidate the rule, creating significant uncertainty for HVACR distributors.

EPA Already Granted One-Year Relief

HARDI and industry partners worked diligently in 2023 to secure a one-year extension for distributors to deplete R-410A inventory. After publishing the final rule on October 24, 2023, EPA issued an emergency “Good Cause Rule” less than two months later, granting distributors until January 1, 2026 to install remaining equipment.

At that time, HARDI made clear this was not a free pass for another year of R-410A sales but a one-time safeguard against stranded inventory as manufacturers shifted to A2Ls and the industry cleared warehouses of R-410A product.

Advocacy Timeline

• October 24, 2023 – EPA publishes Technology Transition Rule

• November 11, 2023 – AHRI, HARDI, and Alliance submit a letter requesting relief from the 1/1/25 install deadline

• December 11, 2023 – Industry submits supplemental information on stranded inventory; EPA signals intent to provide relief in FAQs

• December 21, 2023 – EPA issues Good Cause Rule, moving the installation deadline to 1/1/26

• December 28, 2023 – HARDI publishes member analysis clarifying that the extension was strictly to avoid stranded inventory

The quick action and response show both the urgency of the request and the limited intent: clearing existing R-410A stock before the market fully transitioned.

Market Data Shows the Transition is Nearly Complete

According to the Unitary Market Intelligence Project, 86% of central ducted HVAC sales in July 2025 were A2L systems. At this pace, A2Ls will achieve full market penetration before the end of the 2025 cooling season.

Delaying the installation deadline would not only lack justification but also misrepresent market conditions. Courts require agencies to explain rule reversals with data, and here, the data points decisively against EPA.

AIM Act Prohibits Last-Minute Changes

The AIM Act is explicit:

(§103(i)(6))

This means EPA cannot legally change an installation deadline less than one year before it takes effect. Congress included this clause to prevent the very type of last-minute disruption EPA now appears to be considering.

Courts have enforced similar statutory limits:

• Clean Air Council v. Pruitt – EPA’s attempt to delay methane standards was struck down for failure to follow statutory timelines.

• Air Alliance Houston v. EPA – Court required EPA to honor statutory deadlines for chemical safety rules.

• FCC v. Fox Television Stations – Agencies must supply a reasoned explanation when reversing established rules.

In its December 2023 Good Cause Rule, EPA itself acknowledged this requirement:

A change now would ignore both statute and the EPA’s own precedent, inviting judicial intervention, including by environmental NGOs who supported some of the previously mentioned lawsuits.

Changes Invite State Action

States and environmental NGOs will seize on any delay in HFC rules as a reason to pass new, stricter rules. In fact, New York State, in its affidavit supporting its state regulations, said that states were needed to backstop the EPA from further weakening the rules, like the one-year installation delay: “EPA has amended, weakened or delayed their implementation, leaving the states to maintain EPA’s original reduction commitments.”

Certainty Is Our Biggest Priority

HARDI has consistently emphasized that certainty is the industry’s top priority. A late-stage change, which is unsupported by the law, data, or precedent, would invite litigation. HARDI will strongly urge EPA to maintain the January 1, 2026, installation deadline when the proposal is released in September.

If you have any feedback about the issue, please contact our VP of Government Affairs, Alex Ayers