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Trade wars are bad but President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs won’t have much direct impact on the U.S. economy unless the situation escalates, according to a new survey conducted by Bloomberg News.

Roughly two-thirds of the 35 economists polled by Bloomberg expect the tariffs that Trump signed last week would cause a small decrease in jobs and a small drop in U.S. economic growth, which is enjoying its third-longest expansion on record. One economist predicted a small gain in jobs. No one thought there would be a large impact in either direction.

“By themselves, the tariffs on steel and aluminum will likely have a modest impact on growth and inflation,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James


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